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Analysis Report on Demographic Dividend and Industry Development Opportunities in North Africa
Analysis Report on Demographic Dividend and Industry Development Opportunities in North Africa
Golden Compass Overseas Research Institute
|
Country |
Population (millions) |
Population Density (people/km²) |
Median Age (years) |
Labor Force Participation (%) |
Average Monthly Wage (USD) |
|
Egypt |
103 |
96 |
24 |
58 |
300 |
|
Morocco |
37 |
77 |
29 |
54 |
400 |
|
Algeria |
45 |
16 |
29 |
52 |
350 |
|
Tunisia |
12 |
67 |
28 |
55 |
380 |
|
Libya |
11 |
4 |
25 |
56 |
600 |
|
Sudan |
43 |
177 |
29 |
57 |
180 |
I. Relationship Between Demographic Dividend and Industry Development
The demographic dividend refers to a period when a country or region benefits from an optimized age structure, characterized by a large working-age population and a low dependency ratio, creating favorable conditions for economic growth. Key advantages include:
1. Abundant Labor Supply: A young and sizable workforce drives economic expansion.
2. Expanding Consumer Markets: Rising demand for goods and services stimulates domestic consumption.
3. Enhanced Savings and Investment: A higher proportion of working-age individuals boosts savings rates, facilitating capital accumulation for investments.
II. Table 1: Population Size and Structure
III. Table 2: Household and Social Characteristics
|
Country |
Average marriage age (years) |
Average number of children in the family |
urbanization rate （%） |
|
Egypt |
24 |
3.5 |
43 |
|
Morocco |
26 |
2.8 |
57 |
|
Algeria |
25 |
3.0 |
60 |
|
Tunisia |
24 |
2.9 |
66 |
|
Libya |
23 |
4.1 |
72 |
|
Sudan |
22 |
5.0 |
32 |
|
Country |
Population Size Score |
Labor Force Proportion Score |
Fertility Rate Score |
Urbanizati o n Rate Score |
Average Wage Score |
Comprehensive Score (out of 10) |
|
Sudan |
6 |
7 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
5.8 |
|
Egypt |
8 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
6.2 |
|
Libya |
3 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
10 |
7.2 |
|
Tunisia |
4 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
6.4 |
|
Algeria |
5 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
6.0 |
|
Morocco |
4 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
6.2 |
IV. Demographic Dividend Scoring and Rankings
|
Country |
Population Characteristics |
Industrial Opportunities |
|
Egypt |
Large - scale young population |
Manufacturing, Tourism, Logistics |
|
Morocco |
High urbanization rate |
Textiles, Automobile Manufacturing, Tourism |
|
Algeria |
Abundant natural resources |
Energy industry, Agricultural modernization |
|
Tunisia |
Relatively low average age |
Information technology, Tourism |
|
Libya |
Highest urbanization rate relatively high average wage |
Energy industry, Tourism, Infrastructure construction |
|
Sudan |
High proportion of young population, highest birth rate |
Agriculture, Mining, Manufacturing |
Countries are scored (out of 10) based on the following weighted indicators:
- Population Size: 20%
- Labor Force Participation: 20%
- Fertility Rate (derived from average children per household): 20%
- Urbanization Rate: 20%
- Average Monthly Wage: 20%
Rankings:
1. Libya (7.2)
2. Egypt (6.2), Morocco (6.2)
3. Tunisia (6.4)
4. Algeria (6.0)
5. Sudan (5.8)
V. Analysis of Demographic Dividend and Industry Opportunities by Country
Egypt
- Demographic Dividend: Largest population in North Africa with a young age structure and high labor force participation.
- Industry Opportunities: Labor-intensive manufacturing, tourism, and agriculture. Egypt’s strategic location makes it a hub for logistics and transportation connecting Africa, Europe, and Asia.
Morocco
- Demographic Dividend: High urbanization rate and a young workforce.
- Industry Opportunities: Textiles, automotive manufacturing, and tourism. Free trade agreements with the EU support export-oriented industries.
Algeria
- Demographic Dividend: Moderate population size with high urbanization.
- Industry Opportunities: Energy sector (oil and gas) leveraging natural resources, alongside agricultural modernization.
Tunisia
- Demographic Dividend: Low median age and high labor force participation.
- Industry Opportunities: IT, tourism, and manufacturing. Potential to attract FDI in high-tech sectors.
Libya
- Demographic Dividend: Highest urbanization rate and relatively high wages.
- Industry Opportunities: Post-conflict recovery of the energy sector, tourism, and infrastructure development.
Sudan
- Demographic Dividend: Young population and high fertility rate.
- Industry Opportunities: Agriculture, mining (gold, minerals), and labor-intensive manufacturing.
VI. Summary Table: National Demographic Features and Industry Opportunities
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